Russia will nearly double its export duty on sunflower oil to 14,377 rubles/ton in September from 7,748 in August, and the sunflower meal duty will rise more than sixfold to 1,958 rubles/ton. August sunflower oil shipments are estimated at 50,000 tons, 40% below 2025, amid logistics problems in the south and conflict in the Azov-Black Sea region.
Industry groups are urging the duties be removed.
Higher Russian export duties cut the volume of sunflower oil and meal reaching world markets, which supports international sunflower product prices. Domestic seed prices in Russia are pressured as exporters lose margin.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.