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US and China agreed over the weekend to a 90-day pause in the heaviest tariffs, cutting US duties on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% and China's duties on US imports to 10% from 125%. Iran-US nuclear talks in Oman ended without agreement but further talks were planned.
The tariff cut eases trade tensions and lifts crude prices, while a possible Iranian supply return would be bearish, pulling in opposite directions for energy.
admis.comMark BowmanMay 12, 2025After 36 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (69% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.5%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 16 past bullish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (81% higher; middle half +0.5% to +4.8%), and +5.9% over 20.
After 17 past neutral trade events, Natural Gas moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -4.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
