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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean meal price 340 $/st vs prior 310 (+9.7%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.8 $/bu vs prior 4.5 (+6.7%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 12 $/bu vs prior 11.4 (+5.3%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 1,567 mil bu vs prior 1,653 (-5.2%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 310 mil bu vs prior 320 (-3.1%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE showed bullish surprises for corn (ending stocks cut 5.2% to 1,567 mil bu and the season-average farm price raised 6.7% to $4.8/bu), a supply-tightening mechanism that could support a sharp rally. However, it was released on 2026-09-11, two trading days before the 09-15 move, so the one-day 4% jump may reflect delayed follow-through or other catalysts, which lowers confidence.
WASDE showed lower US corn ending stocks and a higher season-average price projection, bullish surprises that could trigger a sharp one-day rally (dated Sep 11, so timing is only approximate).
