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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 1,653 mil bu vs prior 1,790 (-7.7%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 320 mil bu vs prior 310 (+3.2%, bearish); US soybean meal exports 22,700 k st vs prior 22,000 (+3.2%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.5 $/bu vs prior 4.4 (+2.3%, bullish); US corn exports 3,275 mil bu vs prior 3,200 (+2.3%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Aug 12 WASDE fell within the 5-day window and showed bullish corn surprises (lower ending stocks, higher exports and price), which likely spilled over into SRW wheat through feed-grain substitution and broader grain sentiment, though no wheat-specific surprise is listed, so the link is indirect.
