Loading…
Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn exports 2,975 mil bu vs prior 2,875 (+3.5%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 300 mil bu vs prior 290 (+3.4%, bearish); US wheat ending stocks 844 mil bu vs prior 869 (-2.9%, bullish); US wheat exports 900 mil bu vs prior 875 (+2.9%, bullish); US soybean meal exports 19,200 k st vs prior 18,700 (+2.7%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Sept 12 WASDE raised US corn exports to a record, a bullish demand surprise, and it was the main scheduled catalyst just before the move.
The Sept 12 WASDE cut US wheat ending stocks to 844 mil bu and raised exports to 900 mil bu, a bullish supply/demand shift that plausibly fed the large HRW move.
