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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 560 mil bu vs prior 435 (+28.7%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 134.3 mmt vs prior 127.76 (+5.1%, bearish); US soybean meal price 320 $/st vs prior 330 (-3.0%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 10.8 $/bu vs prior 11.1 (-2.7%, bearish); US corn exports 2,300 mil bu vs prior 2,225 (+3.4%, bullish); US wheat ending stocks 828 mil bu vs prior 856 (-3.3%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.2 $/bu vs prior 4.3 (-2.3%, bearish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The August WASDE surprise of US soybean ending stocks at 560 mil bu vs 435 prior and higher world stocks was a bearish supply shock that drove the sell-off.
