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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US wheat ending stocks 856 mil bu vs prior 758 (+12.9%, bearish); US soybean ending stocks 435 mil bu vs prior 455 (-4.4%, bullish); US wheat exports 825 mil bu vs prior 800 (+3.1%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 4.3 $/bu vs prior 4.4 (-2.3%, bearish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The July 12 WASDE showed US wheat ending stocks of 856 mil bu versus 758 prior (+12.9%), a large bearish supply surprise that is the most direct trigger for the sharp drop in HRW.
