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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 445 mil bu vs prior 340 (+30.9%, bearish); US soybean oil price 42 ¢/lb vs prior 49 (-14.3%, bearish); US soybean meal price 330 $/st vs prior 380 (-13.2%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 11.2 $/bu vs prior 12.55 (-10.8%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 128.5 mmt vs prior 114.22 (+12.5%, bearish); US wheat ending stocks 766 mil bu vs prior 698 (+9.7%, bearish); US soybean meal exports 17,300 k st vs prior 15,800 (+9.5%, bullish); US wheat exports 775 mil bu vs prior 710 (+9.2%, bullish); US corn…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The May WASDE came out on 2024-05-10, shortly before the move. It raised US wheat ending stocks and lowered corn season-average prices, which are bearish for feed grains like barley. Higher wheat and corn export estimates were offsetting, and the report has no barley-specific data, so it is only a plausible partial driver of a 7% one-day move.
