China's Soybean Stockpile Surge: Implications for U.S. Export Season

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2025China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt+1.0%
• Aug 21, 2019Argentina farmer soybean, corn sales for export more than double as peso falls - Benison Media-1.1%
• Dec 22, 2017China tightens import rules for U.S. soybeans+0.3%
• Aug 21, 2019Feed alternatives reducing soybean demand in China - Benison Media-1.1%
• Jul 12, 2018Importers snap up cheap U.S. soybeans as China stops buying+1.5%

After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2025China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt+3.3%
• Aug 21, 2019Argentina farmer soybean, corn sales for export more than double as peso falls - Benison Media-0.9%
• Aug 21, 2019Feed alternatives reducing soybean demand in China - Benison Media-0.9%
• Feb 20, 2018U.S. soybean exports in prime spot for China buys - Morning Ag Clips+1.0%
• Jul 12, 2018Importers snap up cheap U.S. soybeans as China stops buying-1.4%

After 28 past neutral trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.7%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Sep 16, 2019China buys $67 million Worth of U.S. Soybeans as Trade War Eases-5.6%
• Sep 13, 2019China to Exempt U.S. Soybeans, Pork From Punitive Tariffs-2.4%
• Nov 8, 2019The Sprout: China's reasoning for lifting meat ban in two-fold, Bibeau says - iPolitics-1.6%
• Oct 10, 2019China buys more U.S. soybeans, record volume of pork ahead of trade talks | Reuters+7.4%
• Sep 13, 2019China adds some US farm products for additional tariff exemption-2.4%