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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US wheat ending stocks 670 mil bu vs prior 615 (+8.9%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 2,111 mil bu vs prior 2,221 (-5.0%, bullish); World soybean ending stocks 115.62 mmt vs prior 119.25 (-3.0%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Oct 12 WASDE cut world soybean ending stocks by 3.0% (bullish for the soy complex, including meal), which could have supported a rally, but it came about 8 trading days before the window ended, so it likely contributed only indirectly; the wheat and corn surprises were mixed and less relevant to meal.
The Oct 12 WASDE cut world soybean ending stocks, a bullish supply signal that could feed into soybean oil price strength in the following sessions.
