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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 230 mil bu vs prior 280 (-17.9%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 1,470 mil bu vs prior 1,400 (+5.0%, bearish); US soybean meal price 390 $/st vs prior 400 (-2.5%, bearish); US wheat exports 800 mil bu vs prior 775 (+3.2%, bullish); US soybean exports 2,135 mil bu vs prior 2,200 (-3.0%, bearish); US soybean meal exports 14,000 k st vs prior 14,400 (-2.8%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 14.4 $/bu vs prior 14.7 (-2.0%, bearish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The WASDE raised 2022/23 US corn ending stocks by 5% to 1.47 bn bu, a bearish supply surprise on the report day.
The July 12 WASDE lowered US soybean meal price, export and crush projections, which was largely bearish for meal even though ending stocks came in below the prior estimate.
The WASDE raised US corn ending stocks by 5%, a bearish supply surprise that triggered selling.
