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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 285 mil bu vs prior 325 (-12.3%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 1,440 mil bu vs prior 1,540 (-6.5%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 5.65 $/bu vs prior 5.45 (+3.7%, bullish); US soybean oil price 68 ¢/lb vs prior 66 (+3.0%, bullish); US soybean meal price 420 $/st vs prior 410 (+2.4%, bullish); US corn exports 2,500 mil bu vs prior 2,425 (+3.1%, bullish); World soybean ending stocks 89.96 mmt vs prior 92.83 (-3.1%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 13.25 $/bu vs prior 13 (+1.9%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The March WASDE cut US soybean stocks and world stocks and raised its soybean meal price forecast, a bullish supply signal for meal in the window.
The March WASDE cut US corn ending stocks and raised exports, a bullish fundamental backdrop that fed the sharp price swings.
