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Wheat prices rallied briefly on forecasts of cold temperatures, then reversed as warmer, wetter forecasts emerged for the Kansas City belt. Brazil approved 750,000 metric tons of duty-free wheat from non-Mercosur origins after Rosario lowered Argentina's crop estimate to 19 million tons.
Brazil's duty-free import opening creates added export demand for US wheat, while Argentina's smaller crop tightens South American supply.
agweek.comRay GrabanskiNov 17, 2019After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Published just before the 11/18 move, it covers the weather-forecast rally and reversal, Brazil's duty-free import quota and a lower Argentine crop estimate, which are plausible supply and trade-flow drivers of the volatility.
