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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean oil price 65 ¢/lb vs prior 36 (+80.6%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 5.7 $/bu vs prior 4 (+42.5%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 13.85 $/bu vs prior 10.55 (+31.3%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 140 mil bu vs prior 175 (-20.0%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 1,507 mil bu vs prior 1,702 (-11.5%, bullish); US soybean meal price 400 $/st vs prior 370 (+8.1%, bullish); US wheat ending stocks 774 mil bu vs prior 862 (-10.2%, bullish); US wheat exports 900 mil bu vs prior 985 (-8.6%, bearish); US corn exports…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The May 12 WASDE raised soybean ending stocks for the new crop and cut exports, and the large price and balance-sheet revisions drove sharp repricing in soy products that day.
The May 12 WASDE gave the largest data shock of the week; corn exports were cut and new-crop supplies looked comfortable, and the report was less friendly than the trade expected, which likely triggered long liquidation after the rally.
The May 12 WASDE, with higher new-crop soybean stocks and larger world stocks, triggered a sell-the-news reversal after a run-up into the report.
May WASDE showed higher world soybean stocks and lower US export forecasts, and a neutral-to-bullish report failed to sustain the rally, prompting selling.
