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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 460 mil bu vs prior 610 (-24.6%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.5 $/bu vs prior 3.1 (+12.9%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 9.25 $/bu vs prior 8.35 (+10.8%, bullish); US soybean meal price 315 $/st vs prior 290 (+8.6%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 2,503 mil bu vs prior 2,756 (-9.2%, bullish); US soybean oil price 32 ¢/lb vs prior 30 (+6.7%, bullish); US corn exports 2,325 mil bu vs prior 2,225 (+4.5%, bullish); World corn ending stocks 306.79 mmt vs prior 317.46 (-3.4%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, SOY moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Sept 11 WASDE cut US soybean ending stocks 24.6% to 460 mil bu and raised the projected soymeal price, a bullish supply shock at the start of the 5-day window.
The 2020-09-11 WASDE cut US corn and soybean ending stocks and raised price and export projections, and corn strength typically spills into wheat through feed substitution and broad grain sentiment, though the surprises were not wheat-specific.
