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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 610 mil bu vs prior 425 (+43.5%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.1 $/bu vs prior 3.35 (-7.5%, bearish); US soybean oil price 30 ¢/lb vs prior 29 (+3.4%, bullish); US soybean meal price 290 $/st vs prior 300 (-3.3%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 2,756 mil bu vs prior 2,648 (+4.1%, bearish); US soybean exports 2,125 mil bu vs prior 2,050 (+3.7%, bullish); US corn exports 2,225 mil bu vs prior 2,150 (+3.5%, bullish); US wheat exports 975 mil bu vs prior 950 (+2.6%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The August 12 WASDE was the main scheduled catalyst for soybean meal; higher soybean exports and the derecho backdrop offset bearish ending stocks, and the report triggered a bullish reaction in the soy complex.
