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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,648 mil bu vs prior 3,323 (-20.3%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 425 mil bu vs prior 395 (+7.6%, bearish); World corn ending stocks 315.04 mmt vs prior 337.87 (-6.8%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.35 $/bu vs prior 3.2 (+4.7%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 8.5 $/bu vs prior 8.2 (+3.7%, bullish); US soybean meal price 300 $/st vs prior 290 (+3.4%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The July 10 WASDE was the main scheduled catalyst for corn that day, with sharply lower US and world ending stocks, though the price fell despite the bullish headline numbers, so the market reaction was likely driven by details such as the trade's expectations and the production outlook.
The WASDE raised US soybean ending stocks (bearish) even though it raised the meal price forecast, so the report likely added selling pressure on soy complex.
