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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 3,318 mil bu vs prior 2,092 (+58.6%, bearish); US corn exports 2,150 mil bu vs prior 1,725 (+24.6%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 405 mil bu vs prior 480 (-15.6%, bullish); US soybean exports 2,050 mil bu vs prior 1,775 (+15.5%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.2 $/bu vs prior 3.6 (-11.1%, bearish); World corn ending stocks 339.62 mmt vs prior 303.17 (+12.0%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 8.2 $/bu vs prior 8.65 (-5.2%, bearish); US soybean meal price 290 $/st vs prior 305 (-4.9%, bearish); US…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The May 12 WASDE was released on the day of the drop; it cut US wheat exports and signaled larger world supplies and record global production, which likely triggered HRW selling despite lower US ending stocks.
WASDE release lowered US wheat exports and was bearish for grains broadly, though US wheat ending stocks vs prior was bullish, so the net effect is mixed.
