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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 480 mil bu vs prior 425 (+12.9%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 2,092 mil bu vs prior 1,892 (+10.6%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.6 $/bu vs prior 3.8 (-5.3%, bearish); US soybean oil price 30 ¢/lb vs prior 31.5 (-4.8%, bearish); US wheat ending stocks 970 mil bu vs prior 940 (+3.2%, bearish); US soybean exports 1,775 mil bu vs prior 1,825 (-2.7%, bearish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, SOY moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The April 9 WASDE raised US corn ending stocks by about 10.6% and cut the season-average price forecast, a bearish supply surprise that the market could still have been digesting on the April 13 trading day after the Easter weekend break.
