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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean oil price 31 ¢/lb vs prior 30 (+3.3%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 475 mil bu vs prior 460 (+3.3%, bearish); US wheat ending stocks 1,014 mil bu vs prior 1,043 (-2.8%, bullish); US corn exports 1,850 mil bu vs prior 1,900 (-2.6%, bearish); US soybean meal exports 13,350 k st vs prior 13,700 (-2.6%, bearish); World corn ending stocks 295.96 mmt vs prior 302.55 (-2.2%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Nov 8 WASDE cut US wheat ending stocks (1,014 vs 1,043 mil bu, bullish), which plausibly fed a Monday Nov 11 rebound in SRW after the report's initial reaction.
