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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,181 mil bu vs prior 2,010 (+8.5%, bearish); US soybean exports 1,775 mil bu vs prior 1,875 (-5.3%, bearish); US soybean ending stocks 755 mil bu vs prior 795 (-5.0%, bullish); US corn exports 2,050 mil bu vs prior 2,150 (-4.7%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.6 $/bu vs prior 3.7 (-2.7%, bearish); World corn ending stocks 307.72 mmt vs prior 298.92 (+2.9%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 101.74 mmt vs prior 104.53 (-2.7%, bullish); US wheat exports 975 mil bu vs prior 950 (+2.6%, bullish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
US corn ending stocks of 2,181 mil bu were well above the prior estimate, and lower exports and a lower season-average price made the balance sheet bearish for corn.
The August 12 WASDE, with its bearish corn stocks surprise and higher wheat yield, most plausibly drove the sharp one-day HRW selloff through spillover from corn and a larger wheat supply outlook, though the timing is ambiguous because the window ends 2019-08-11.
