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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US corn ending stocks 2,485 mil bu vs prior 2,035 (+22.1%, bearish); US soybean meal price 290 $/st vs prior 315 (-7.9%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.3 $/bu vs prior 3.55 (-7.0%, bearish); US soybean ending stocks 970 mil bu vs prior 895 (+8.4%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 8.1 $/bu vs prior 8.6 (-5.8%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 113.09 mmt vs prior 107.36 (+5.3%, bearish); US wheat ending stocks 1,141 mil bu vs prior 1,087 (+5.0%, bearish); US wheat exports 900 mil bu vs prior 945 (-4.8%, bearish); US…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The May 10 WASDE showed a large bearish surprise in US corn ending stocks and lower projected corn and wheat prices, and oats typically follow the broader feed grain complex, so the sharp drop on the next trading day (May 13) is plausibly linked to this repricing.
The May 10 WASDE lowered the soybean meal price forecast and raised US soybean and world stocks, a bearish supply shift for meal.
The WASDE of 2019-05-10 raised US soybean stocks and cut the projected meal price, a bearish supply backdrop that left prices vulnerable to the trade shock.
The May 10 WASDE raised US wheat ending stocks and cut exports, a bearish surprise that could have moved HRW sharply, though the direction of the 4.68% move is unspecified and other grain balance sheets were also bearish.
