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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 845 mil bu vs prior 785 (+7.6%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 1,774 mil bu vs prior 1,684 (+5.3%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 8.6 $/bu vs prior 8.9 (-3.4%, bearish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.5 $/bu vs prior 3.6 (-2.8%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 108.26 mmt vs prior 105.94 (+2.2%, bearish); US corn exports 2,400 mil bu vs prior 2,350 (+2.1%, bullish); US soybean meal price 310 $/st vs prior 315 (-1.6%, bearish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Sept 12 WASDE was bearish for corn and soybean balance sheets (higher ending stocks, lower prices), which likely spilled over to SRW wheat via feed-grain sentiment and contributed to the selloff during the window.
