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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 580 mil bu vs prior 385 (+50.6%, bearish); World soybean ending stocks 98.27 mmt vs prior 87.02 (+12.9%, bearish); US soybean exports 2,040 mil bu vs prior 2,290 (-10.9%, bearish); US soybean season-avg farm price 9.25 $/bu vs prior 10 (-7.5%, bearish); US soybean oil price 30 ¢/lb vs prior 31.5 (-4.8%, bearish); US corn exports 2,225 mil bu vs prior 2,100 (+6.0%, bullish); US soybean meal price 335 $/st vs prior 350 (-4.3%, bearish); US soybean meal exports 13,100 k st vs prior 12,400 (+5.6%, bullish); US wheat…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The July 12 WASDE cut the season-average corn farm price projection and delivered broadly bearish grain balance sheets (large soybean and wheat stock increases), pressuring corn within the 5-day window, partly offset by higher corn exports.
The July 12 WASDE was broadly bearish for grains (higher US wheat ending stocks, lower corn and soybean price projections, huge soybean stock increase), which likely pressured the wider grain complex and oats through sentiment and feed-substitution linkages, though oats were not directly cited.
The July 12 WASDE (released before the move ending 2018-07-15) had broadly bearish surprises across grains, including higher US wheat ending stocks and lower corn and soybean price projections, which likely weighed on oats via sentiment and feed-grain spillover, though oats were not directly cited and the size of the drop is much larger than this explains.
