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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: US soybean ending stocks 415 mil bu vs prior 550 (-24.5%, bullish); US corn ending stocks 1,682 mil bu vs prior 2,182 (-22.9%, bullish); World corn ending stocks 159.15 mmt vs prior 197.78 (-19.5%, bullish); US corn season-avg farm price 3.8 $/bu vs prior 3.35 (+13.4%, bullish); US soybean exports 2,290 mil bu vs prior 2,065 (+10.9%, bullish); US wheat ending stocks 955 mil bu vs prior 1,064 (-10.2%, bullish); US soybean season-avg farm price 10 $/bu vs prior 9.3 (+7.5%, bullish); US corn exports 2,100 mil bu vs prior 2,225 (-5.6%, bearish);…
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The May 10 WASDE showed sharply lower US corn and wheat ending stocks and a higher projected corn price, which is bullish for the grain complex and likely lifted oats through feed-grain substitution and sympathy buying when markets reacted into the following sessions.
