
October nonfarm payrolls rose by 150,000, below the 180,000 expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. US yields fell sharply, with the 2-year dropping toward 4.85% and the 10-year falling to 4.55%, and the Dollar Index fell to its lowest since September 20.
The weak payrolls report pushes the dollar lower and supports dollar-priced grain and feed prices, though softer US economic momentum may limit demand expectations.
After 47 past bearish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.2%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Payrolls miss (150k vs 180k) and rising unemployment sent 2-year and 10-year yields sharply lower, pushing the Dollar Index to its lowest since Sept 20.