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Bank of Singapore argues the US dollar's upside has stalled since early October despite high US yields and resilient US activity data. It notes the Federal Reserve is comfortable letting higher bond yields tighten conditions, and that Asian central banks are resisting dollar strength.
A stalled dollar with policy resistance in Asia suggests limited near-term dollar support for dollar-priced feed commodities, with reversal risk if US data softens.
bankofsingapore.comNov 2, 2023After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 169 past neutral macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
