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Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, 12:00 ET. Updates US and world balance sheets and season-average price projections.
Surprises: World soybean ending stocks 97.78 mmt vs prior 93.53 (+4.5%, bearish); US soybean oil price 33 ¢/lb vs prior 32 (+3.1%, bullish); US soybean exports 2,225 mil bu vs prior 2,150 (+3.5%, bullish); US soybean ending stocks 475 mil bu vs prior 460 (+3.3%, bearish); US corn ending stocks 2,273 mil bu vs prior 2,325 (-2.2%, bullish); US soybean meal price 315 $/st vs prior 320 (-1.6%, bearish).
USDA WAOBAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 686 past report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Aug 10 WASDE was released on the day of the move and likely drove it, though the corn-specific surprise (lower US ending stocks, bullish) points opposite to the -3.49% drop; the move more plausibly reflects the bearish soybean stocks and yield/production sentiment spilling over into corn, so the attribution is uncertain.
