
The flash US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 from 50.7, but beat forecasts, while the services index dropped to a record low of 39.0. The euro rose above 1.08 against the dollar as the data signaled a sharp US economic contraction.
A deepening US recession signal weakens dollar demand and supports EUR/USD strength. Weaker US demand outlook also pressures commodity demand expectations.
After 20 past bullish report events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (70% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.6%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 47 past bearish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (34% higher; middle half -0.8% to +0.2%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.