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October lean hogs fell $2.70 to $59.30, their lowest close in over a year, after China imposed a new 10% tariff on US pork on top of existing duties. Live cattle also weakened after a new Chinese tariff on US beef and the Tyson plant fire.
The added Chinese tariff cuts US pork export demand, which pressures domestic hog prices and adds to the burden of an already weak export market.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanAug 26, 2019After 123 past bearish trade events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's new tariff on US beef plus the Tyson plant fire weighed on live cattle in the days around Aug 26, adding trade-demand and packer-capacity pressure that fits the sell-off.
