
Trump announced that the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef would end, prompting expected quick sales of frozen Brazilian beef held in US bonded storage. Live and feeder cattle futures fell to their lowest since July on the news.
Brazil faces a 26.4% tariff for the rest of 2025 before the new quota year begins on January 1.
Large volumes of Brazilian beef entering the US market add supply that competes with domestic beef and weighs on cattle prices. The 2026 tariff-free quota could sustain higher import flows.
After 121 past bearish trade events, LCATTLE moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 87 past bearish trade events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.2% to +1.9%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Removal of the 40% Brazil beef tariff raises expected import supply and pushed feeder futures to their lowest since July.
Removal of the 40% Brazil beef tariff raises expected imports and pushed live cattle futures to lowest since July.