
Wheat futures fell over 1% as the dollar index rose to 101.49. US private payrolls rose 216,000 in November, above expectations, and personal income beat forecasts.
USDA expects US wheat area to fall 1.7 million acres to 48.5 million and production to drop to 1.94 billion bushels, the lowest in 11 years.
A stronger dollar makes US wheat less competitive in export markets and pressured prices. The USDA's forecast of smaller US wheat output is supportive for prices over the medium term.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.