Oil Prices Rise on Expectations for a Production Cut

After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2016OPEC Production Cut: What It Really Means for Oil Prices | Fortune+16.7%
• Mar 1, 2017Oil prices rise as OPEC production cut trims supply | Globalnews.ca+1.5%
• Apr 1, 2025Oil prices rise for second consecutive week on expected tighter supply-14.2%
• Dec 7, 2018Oil Prices Jump After OPEC Agrees To Bigger-Than-Expected Production Cut : NPR+2.2%
• Apr 3, 2023Oil Prices Jump After Surprise OPEC Production Cut - The New York Times+7.4%

After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.

• Nov 30, 2016OPEC Production Cut: What It Really Means for Oil Prices | Fortune+12.5%
• Mar 1, 2017Oil prices rise as OPEC production cut trims supply | Globalnews.ca-2.2%
• Apr 1, 2025Oil prices rise for second consecutive week on expected tighter supply-15.1%
• Dec 7, 2018Oil Prices Jump After OPEC Agrees To Bigger-Than-Expected Production Cut : NPR+2.2%
• Apr 3, 2023Oil Prices Jump After Surprise OPEC Production Cut - The New York Times+5.4%

After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 3, 2023Oil Prices Jump After Surprise OPEC Production Cut - The New York Times-2.4%
• Jan 28, 2026Asian palm oil prices hit three-month high on stronger rival oils, lower production+0.6%
• Oct 27, 2026Growing US biofuel production intensifies competition for soybean oil-0.5%
• Mar 8, 2023Indonesian palm oil exports, production to fall in 2023 - GAPKI-5.5%
• Jan 18, 2023Production drops, CPO export duty up 42%-4.4%