
Noncommercial traders held record long positions in corn even as prices fell about 47 cents in a month. Soybeans fell sharply after Trump said he was ready to impose another $200 billion in tariffs on China if Beijing proceeded with its July 6 tariffs, and both markets partly recovered by session end.
Threatened tariffs on the largest buyer of US soybeans hit export expectations, while forced fund liquidation adds downside pressure to corn.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.