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POLITICO reports the Trump administration paid $10.3 billion in 2019 to farmers hit by retaliatory tariffs, on top of $8.6 billion for the prior year's production. Direct government payments are up 64% from 2018, driven largely by trade aid.
Large trade aid payments support farm incomes and production decisions while US export competitiveness remains weak, keeping US feed grain and soybean prices under pressure.
politico.comRyan McCrimmonDec 5, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
