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The USDA released its first national oats condition report for 2024, with an initial crop rating of 712. That is below the 1996-2024 average of 719 but the highest initial rating in four years and well above last year's 688.
Cold, wet springs and drought in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, plus dry conditions in Texas, shaped the crop outlook.
A stronger early condition rating points to a larger expected oat crop, which adds supply and tends to weigh on oat prices. Weather in the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains will still determine whether that rating holds.
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinMay 16, 2024After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA's first oat condition report on May 16 showed the best initial rating in four years, which eases new-crop supply concerns and could trigger selling after oats had rallied to five-month highs.
