
Trade expectations for the 2022 North American oat crop are high after record-low supplies and strong demand from beverage and gluten-free makers. Statistics Canada reported oat plantings up 16% to 4 million acres, but late seeding and conflicting government crop data leave the outlook uncertain.
Oat prices have been falling along with broader grain prices.
A larger Canadian and US oat crop would ease the tight supply that has supported prices, but late seeding and summer heat risks could limit yields.
After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.