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US distillate stocks remain about 33% above year-ago levels and ULSD margins are sharply lower year over year. Refinery runs are expected to weaken as gasoline demand seasonally declines after Labor Day.
Global crude time spreads moved into deeper contango, signaling softening refinery-level demand.
Excess diesel and crude inventories and falling refinery runs point to weaker energy demand and bearish crude pricing over the coming weeks.
dtn.comDave CastoSep 4, 2020After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Elevated US distillate stocks and weak ULSD margins, with seasonally weaker refinery demand after Labor Day, left diesel vulnerable to a selloff.
