
US oil futures settled $1.71 lower at $61.39 on May 21, 2019, down 2.7%, after the EIA reported a 4.7 million barrel build in crude inventories versus expectations of a draw. Gasoline stocks also rose unexpectedly by 3.7 million barrels.
Brent fell $1.19 to $70.99.
Surprise inventory builds signal weaker near-term crude demand and raise worries that the US-China trade war will cut fuel consumption, pressuring energy prices. Lower crude and gasoline costs tend to weigh on biofuel margins and related energy-linked feed inputs.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
EIA reported a surprise 4.7M barrel crude build and a gasoline build on May 21-22, sending Brent down $1.19 to $70.99 and driving the drop in the window.
Oil futures fell 2.7% on May 21 after the EIA reported an unexpected 4.7M bbl crude build and a gasoline stock build, a bearish supply signal that pulled ULSD lower into the May 22 move.
The prior day's EIA build in crude and gasoline stocks and a 2.7% price drop set the bearish tone that carried into the next session.