
The EIA's 2019 Summer Fuel Outlook forecasts US diesel retail prices averaging $3.09 per gallon this summer, below last summer's $3.22. Distillate consumption is expected to reach its highest summer level since 2007, while stocks stay about 6 million barrels below the five-year average.
Lower forecast retail diesel costs reduce transport and farm operating expenses. Tight distillate stocks leave some upside risk if demand runs higher than expected.
After 86 past bearish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.3% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.