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Russian shelling has kept Odesa region's three ports closed since late July 2026, and grain exports have fallen by more than half. Farmers are selling wheat below cost as domestic prices drop amid the surplus.
Stranded Ukrainian grain is depressing Black Sea wheat and corn export prices while farmers hold stocks, tightening the link between port access and global supply.
After 138 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.1% to +0.9%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.