
Canadian wheat seeded area for 2017 is estimated down 3.7% from 2016 to 22.4 million acres, while spring wheat area is expected to rise 2.5% to 15.8 million acres, according to Statistics Canada's June survey. U.S. wheat and canola futures rallied in early trading as traders focused on dryness in the Dakotas, Montana and Saskatchewan, with dry areas forecast to spread into eastern Alberta in July.
Late seeding in Western Canada leaves more of the crop in its reproductive phase, when heat stress is most damaging.
Dry weather during the reproductive stage threatens yields, and a weaker crop outlook supports wheat prices and tightens feed grain supplies in the region.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.