US Midwest ammonia prices rose more than 30% from late June to early October, reaching about $800 per short ton and then climbing to around $875. Ammonia imports from Trinidad and Tobago fell about 34% this year after Nutrien indefinitely shut its Trinidad nitrogen operations in October due to gas shortages.
Losing Trinidad's ammonia supply, which typically moves by barge up the river system, tightens nitrogen fertilizer availability during the fall application season. Higher nitrogen costs raise farm input expenses and can push urea prices up.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.