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Middle East urea spot prices rose above $480/t FOB, up 18% since early January, and North African deals pushed prices above $500/t for the first time since November 2025. China is absent from export trade due to a lack of export quotas, and Iranian seasonal gas diversions are removing up to 450,000 t/month from the market.
Tight export supply from China, Iran and Indonesia meets expected US and Indian buying, which supports firm urea prices into spring. Higher fertilizer costs squeeze feed-grain margins and raise input costs for feed producers.
profercy.comChris YearsleyFeb 4, 2026After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Supply cutbacks (no Chinese export quotas, Iranian seasonal gas diversions of up to 450kt/month) combined with US and Indian demand lifted urea spot prices, which is a direct supply and trade-flow driver, though published after the move date.
