
Urea and UAN prices have rallied, with urea up about US$80 per tonne since early January, according to CBH Group's fertiliser business manager. Indian tenders in December and January were each only half filled, and Australia must import 3.5 to 3.8 million tonnes between April and September.
Strong Indian import demand and Australian spring needs are tightening urea supply, keeping nitrogen costs elevated for feed grain producers. Prices are unlikely to ease in the short term.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.