
A Supreme Court injunction kept the 42-hour work week schedule but left the timing of the rest day to collective bargaining pending a plenary decision. The newsletter also reports that Conab expects a smaller rice harvest, that Brazilian wheat import forecasts rose, that the port soybean price reached a 2026 high, and that the federal diesel subsidy for imports was allowed to lapse.
Lapsing of the diesel import subsidy raises transport costs for Brazilian farmers, while a higher port soybean price reflects domestic demand rather than Chicago. Labor rules are a secondary factor for feed logistics.
After 107 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.