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Investors moved to price an end to Fed rate hikes after a weak US labor report and softer October inflation data. The US 10-year yield fell below 4.5% and the Dollar Index posted its worst day of the year, down 1.5%.
Lower yields and a weaker dollar reduce the cost of holding commodities and tend to support dollar-denominated grain and meal prices.
convera.comIngmar ApinisNov 15, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
It describes softer US inflation and a weak labor report that led markets to price an end to Fed hikes, with the Dollar Index posting its worst day of the year (-1.5%), which explains the EUR/USD jump through lower US yields.
