
The European Central Bank raised rates by a half point as planned despite recent market turmoil, and the euro rose to $1.0618 while the dollar index fell 0.3%. Markets priced more than an 80% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve hike the following week.
A firmer euro and softer dollar modestly support dollar-priced commodities, while expectations of continued Fed tightening keep upward pressure on the dollar over the medium term.
After 388 past bullish macro events, EURUSD moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.