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Nigeria produced an average of 1.51 million barrels of crude per day in October, equal to 101 percent of its OPEC allocation. The IEA projected that global oil supply would exceed demand by 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
A projected global supply surplus points to softer crude prices, which lowers diesel and energy costs for feed mills and freight.
After 338 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -5.2% to +1.9%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.