China has opened its winter reserve of chemical fertiliser, and new export tariff rules set for mid-December are expected to allow more exports next year. Urea prices in Shandong rose to 1,530-1,560 yuan per tonne from 1,460-1,500 at the start of the month, and Henan prices rose 40-50 yuan.
Expected Chinese urea export flows lift the global nitrogen price outlook, which raises fertiliser costs for grain and oilseed producers. The effect on feed grain prices is indirect.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.